A election at short notice is among the possibilities in the current fast-moving political scene (prorogation declared unconstitutional etc). if it happens, it will be a travesty. Farage has signalled co-operation with pro-Brexit Conservatives. Johnson’s rejection does not affect what will happen if Brexit field candidates mainly in Labour seats which voted ‘Leave’. They may not gain (m)any MPs, but a clear Conservative majority is the likeliest outcome.
Although ‘Leave’ voters appear to be more polarized than ‘Remainers’ (my impression is that all the several death threats are against ‘Remainers’), the Euro results suggest that that narrow Referendum ‘Leave’ majority has been reversed, but Remainers are split more ways than Leavers.
The liberal Democrats have succeeded in getting generally identified as the ‘Remain’ party. As this election is likely to be about little else than Brexit the Green Party will simply be squeezed. Of course the election should really be about climate breakdown, but if the election is in October 2019, it won’t be. The Green Party has belatedly tried to return to its ecological roots, but remains steadfastly anti-conservative, where its real potential recruitment lies.
If I were trying to guide green Party strategy, I would suggest that we should offer the Lib Dems an extremely generous deal. Greens should not stand anywhere that Lib Dems might re-take seats they lost in 2015. All we Greens would ask in return is a clear run in the Isle of Wight. There are a couple of other seats, one in Herefordshire and one in Hertfordshire where our vote bucked the general collapse, but the IoW is our best prospect for our second Green MP – Vix Lowthion
I credit my recent self-identification as borderline Asperger’s with correctly identifying the Isle of Wight as our best prospect in 2017, contrary to the ‘normal’ consensus which could not see what was about to happen in all those 2015 bright spots.
Asperger’s probably means that the narrative which seems obvious to me will be difficult to explain on the doorstep: Brexit is a ploy by the neoliberal elite to make sure they, the CEOs of transnational companies are able to control (bully) governments when the ecological Tragedy strikes.
Early blog this week – off to CAT conference.